Euro's Resilience Amid ECB Speeches and US Data Uncertainty
The euro maintained its position at approximately $1.16, marking the beginning of a week filled with anticipation. Investors are eagerly awaiting the European Central Bank's (ECB) speeches and crucial US economic data, which have been delayed due to the government shutdown. These insights are expected to provide valuable guidance regarding the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
On Monday, Luis de Guindos, the ECB Vice President, expressed optimism about the Eurozone's inflation trajectory, aligning with the bank's target. However, he also emphasized the potential risks associated with tariffs, sovereign debt, and the possibility of a sudden shift in market sentiment.
In the meantime, the European Commission has revised its growth forecast for the Eurozone, predicting a stronger performance in 2025. The new projection of 1.3% growth represents an increase from the previous estimate of 0.9% in the spring outlook. This upward revision is attributed to a surge in exports to the United States, as companies strategically stocked up before the implementation of Trump-era tariffs.
The growth trajectory is expected to moderate in 2026, reaching 1.2%, and then rebound to 1.4% in 2027, according to the Commission's forecast.
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